On Friday the Yen weakened, sending the USDJPY pair up to 119. Yet, the pair is still at strong resistance levels (119 being a round number and a turbulence zone back in 2006 and before), with volumes and ADX declining. Meaning that this move is nothing more than "noise" and should be observed from a safe place.
Same observation on the Nikkei which is unable to stay above 17 500 after trying to break through, with ADX being below 30 and pointing down.
Japan published luster economic data (again), with inflation hitting a more than one-year low, despite the BOJ's efforts to hike inflation to 2%, and household spending falling. Sales of new cars in Japan fell by 13.5% year-on-year in November. Car sales is a key metric: the Japanese love their cars, and they love them brand new and shiny. If they buy less cars, that means something serious is going onand maybe the sales tax hike was not such a good idea after all. Nevertheless, as a "trader" (amateur or not) you shouldn't think about what this could cause on the equity and currency markets: just focus on what you can see. Don't assume that all this bad news should send the Nikkei lower, just keep in mind that the trend is bullish until proven wrong (that is if you see a lower high and a lower low).
After the Japanese government announced the country was entering recession back in November, the Nikkei was rejected at 17 500 after timidly trying to move higher. The same level is still at play today.
What we just observed is similar: the index is in a bull trend and struggling to break through 17 500 despite bad news (poor economic data and low inflation), then another piece of news hits the wire (Moodys downgrades Japan to Aa3) and sends the index back under its resistance. Again, what's important is to keep focusing on the big picture. The Nikkei and the USDJPY pair want to go higher, but now they are stuck under strong levels with low trading volumes. It won't matter whether the economic news is good or bad, because after the noise dissipates the long term trend is unchanged.
Same observation on the Nikkei which is unable to stay above 17 500 after trying to break through, with ADX being below 30 and pointing down.
Japan published luster economic data (again), with inflation hitting a more than one-year low, despite the BOJ's efforts to hike inflation to 2%, and household spending falling. Sales of new cars in Japan fell by 13.5% year-on-year in November. Car sales is a key metric: the Japanese love their cars, and they love them brand new and shiny. If they buy less cars, that means something serious is going on
After the Japanese government announced the country was entering recession back in November, the Nikkei was rejected at 17 500 after timidly trying to move higher. The same level is still at play today.
What we just observed is similar: the index is in a bull trend and struggling to break through 17 500 despite bad news (poor economic data and low inflation), then another piece of news hits the wire (Moodys downgrades Japan to Aa3) and sends the index back under its resistance. Again, what's important is to keep focusing on the big picture. The Nikkei and the USDJPY pair want to go higher, but now they are stuck under strong levels with low trading volumes. It won't matter whether the economic news is good or bad, because after the noise dissipates the long term trend is unchanged.
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