The Nikkei has picked up the pace over the last couple of days. It has finally broken its 17,500 resistance with rising volumes and ADX point upwards, indicating that the move is strong. The index is definitely and strongly bullish and wants to break some multi-year records.
On the charts, the Nikkei is approaching the pre-Lehman crash high of 2007 at 18,300, which also was a double top and a RSI divergence -on a monthly chart- with the previous high of April 2006. This is serious.
On every long-term (monthly, weekly, daily) chart, RSI and stochastic are in the overbought zone, and since the Nikkei hasn't made a low since mid October, I'm prepared for the index to retrace and give us a long opportunity. Patience is a virtue.
But patience can be frustrating too: looking back at this 17,500 resistance, what can you do in such a situation?
- the asset has made a higher low earlier and surged from there.
- the asset is now stuck under a resistance with low volumes, and seesawing. If you went long after the previous low, you close your trade here. But all this upward pressure under the resistance line is a new opportunity for you.
- you could place a long trade order a few pips above the resistance line, or even better, go long after you see a daily candle close above it.
- what I did: I don't like trade orders because they are sometimes triggered by 'noise' which is dangerous. The second solution is usually my strategy but I unfortunately was sick these days and didn't watch my charts at all. That's frustrating but that's the way this business is: you wait for days for an opportunity that doesn't come, then when you lower your guard (or have other things to do) things move.
This is not the first time I've done this nor the last time. But frustration can lead to anger/panic trades which are always bad. It's better not to make money than to lose money.
I'll be patient and wait for a new higher low to buy.
Again, this move is back up by all the big guysOn the macroeconomic side we have a government who wants a weak currency for exports and a central bank that is running its biggest monetary easing ever to support that.
On the charts, the Nikkei is approaching the pre-Lehman crash high of 2007 at 18,300, which also was a double top and a RSI divergence -on a monthly chart- with the previous high of April 2006. This is serious.
On every long-term (monthly, weekly, daily) chart, RSI and stochastic are in the overbought zone, and since the Nikkei hasn't made a low since mid October, I'm prepared for the index to retrace and give us a long opportunity. Patience is a virtue.
But patience can be frustrating too: looking back at this 17,500 resistance, what can you do in such a situation?
- the asset has made a higher low earlier and surged from there.
- the asset is now stuck under a resistance with low volumes, and seesawing. If you went long after the previous low, you close your trade here. But all this upward pressure under the resistance line is a new opportunity for you.
- you could place a long trade order a few pips above the resistance line, or even better, go long after you see a daily candle close above it.
- what I did: I don't like trade orders because they are sometimes triggered by 'noise' which is dangerous. The second solution is usually my strategy but I unfortunately was sick these days and didn't watch my charts at all. That's frustrating but that's the way this business is: you wait for days for an opportunity that doesn't come, then when you lower your guard (or have other things to do) things move.
This is not the first time I've done this nor the last time. But frustration can lead to anger/panic trades which are always bad. It's better not to make money than to lose money.
I'll be patient and wait for a new higher low to buy.
Aucun commentaire:
Enregistrer un commentaire